Ski Season (#10) winding down Ski Season (#10) winding down

Looking west this morning from the top of Keystone Ski Area. The camera would have to be aimed a couple of degrees to the right to see where I am right now in Dillon along that lake in the background.

Yesterday was a blizzard, and today was supposed to be one too. Probably the last one of the regular season this year. But the prediction of 90% cloudy and 80% chance of snow doesn't look all that realistic today.

I am getting a bit sentimental right now. We have three more days (including today) of the Mountain Watch program at Keystone, and the last almost five months have flown by. Each season seems to get just a little bit better. And seems a little bit shorter.

Most of the volunteers will be back next year, and we seem to be picking up some each year, so the program is actually growing. We took a big hit four years ago when moved from Guest Services to Ski Patrol, and it has taken that long to build back the momentum we had. But the organizational switch turns out to have been really good for the program - we integrate better and better with Ski Patrol every year, without losing some of our guest services functions.

The problem is with the paid staff. We got a bunch back this year from the previous year, plus we had the same supervisor and lead. But we don't expect that this coming year. Our supervisor has married and is moving away. The lead and a bunch of others are trying to move up to the Ski Patrol, and if they pass their skiing test tomorrow, should be at the top of the list next year.

The program has matured a lot over the last four years. As I noted above, it has become an integral part of Keystone Ski Patrol (KSP). We do what they don't want to do (like traffic control and closing runs) happily. And as importantly, our daily staffing needs often nicely complement theirs. In particular, we have a lot of availability after about 3 p.m. when KSP is sweeping the back mountains, and thus have taken an ever increasing role (now lead) in "Gang Groom", where Keystone grooms part of the front of the mountain between 3 and 4 most days for night skiing.

One of the things that has really been impressive this year is how much Mountain Watch has become proactive. If an injury is called in on the western side of the front of the mountain, we are often first on the scene. This is esp. true in the A51 terrain park, where it is often necessary to temporarily close park features until an injury can be transported. I am not the only MW who monitors the Patrol channel for just this reason, to get an idea of what is going on as to injuries. Of course, we also probably pick up at least half the injuries on the Green runs on the front before they can get called in, as we constantly cycle through those runs looking for trouble.

My worry is that it is going to be hard to duplicate our successes this season next year, given the likely paid staff departures. We do have some very talented younger guys expecting to try for the lead position, and that should help a lot.

So, I will ski hard and work hard the next three days, and then probably only ski once or twice after that this season. Hopefully a nice finish to a great season.

Cheney Allegedly Offers to Trade Carter for Hostages Cheney Allegedly Offers to Trade Carter for Hostages

ScrappleFace: Cheney Allegedly Offers to Trade Carter for Hostages:

A source close to Dick Cheney said today that the vice president has suggested freeing 15 British sailors and marines from Iranian captivity by trading former President Jimmy Carter for the hostages.

The deal, which Mr. Cheney reportedly believes “has a certain poetic justice to it”, would require an executive order signed by President George Bush, but the unnamed source said presidential adviser Karl Rove “can take care of that as usual without bothering the president with the details.”

White House insiders said the trade would not violate the Bush administration’s policy of refusing to negotiate with terrorists, “since only one party in this deal would receive anything of strategic value.”

It is actually worse than that. The Iranians would be giving up something of strategic value in trade for something that has a negative strategic value to us. Looks to be a winner from our side.

Michael Yon : Tabula Rasa Michael Yon : Tabula Rasa

Michael Yon is back in Iraq and is blogging, describing his history of war blogging in: Tabula Rasa. Unfortunately, the military seems to be going through one of its phases of shutting down embedded reporting, just as it is most needed. Yon ended up spending two full days getting this blog out. Hopefully, the new commander in Iraq, Gen. Petraeus, will get this sort of thing straightened out, given his expertise and past experiences.

IraqPundit: Sadr in Splinters? IraqPundit: Sadr in Splinters?

IraqPundit: Sadr in Splinters? Moktada al Sadr is on the lam, hiding in Iran, and his Mahdi army is rapidly splintering. So, as a result, the WaPo suggests that he is a power broker and one of the most powerful people in Iraq right now - if he were actually in Iraq right now, which he isn't.

Holiday in Iraq Holiday in Iraq

Christopher Hitchens in vanityfair.com: Holiday in Iraq tells of spending his Christmas vacation with his son in Iraqi Kurdistan, where walking the streets at night is safer than in many American cities. The Iraqi Kurds are doing quite well, having had a head start over the rest of Iraq with the No-Fly (or as Hitchens called them, the "you fly, you die") zone.

Why Is Rudy Smiling? Why Is Rudy Smiling?

TIME: Why Is Rudy Smiling? paints a surprisingly positive picture of "America's Mayor". Right now, I would put money on him getting the Republican nomination. And if he does, the only Democrat I see potentially beating him is Obama.

What should be scaring the Democrats right now is the picture of Rudy with the Governorator. California seems to respond to personality, fame, and glamor. And with two bigger than life players on the Republican side there, I suspect the state will be in play for the first time in quite awhile.

Virtual Worlds, Real Disputes Virtual Worlds, Real Disputes

TCS Daily: Virtual Worlds, Real Disputes points to a lot of great legal questions and issues becoming ever more relevant as virtual worlds open up.

Are the poor that poor? Are the poor that poor?

TCS Daily: Poor Performances looks into the fact that after spending $10 trillion on poverty programs since LBJ's Great Society was launched, poverty in this country is supposedly at an all time high. But is it? Not when the average "poor" person in this country has 1/3 more living space than the average Japanese, 1/4 more than the average Frenchman, etc., and while 41% own their own homes, averaging three bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths and $150,000, 70% own at least one car, and 27% owned two or more cars.

Two big reasons that the "poor" in this country are not, on average, that poor. First, poverty figures don't include non-cash income, such as: food stamps; Medicare; WIC; etc. And, secondly, the poor tend to grossly underreport their incomes to the Census Bureau. Indeed, the poor on average spend $1.94 for every dollar that they earn.

Our Green ICE Age Our Green ICE Age

TCS Daily: Our Green ICE Age points out that Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) are far better ecologically than the animals such engines replaced. Not only do livestock even now generate some 18% of all greenhouse gases (more than all ICE vehicles combined), but the horses, etc. that ICE replaced were huge polluters of towns, waterways, etc. One of the most significant ways in which city life was made healthier in the last 100 years was the replacement of horses by ICE vehicles.

By the Way: We're Not Losing By the Way: We're Not Losing

Austin Bay in TCS Daily: By the Way: We're Not Losing points out what should be obvious.

The chattering class nostrum that Free Iraq and its coalition allies have "lost the Iraq war" is so blatantly wrong it would be a source of laughter were human life and hope-inspiring liberty not at such terrible risk.

In terms of fundamental historical changes favoring 21st century freedom and peace, what Free Iraq and its Coalition allies have accomplished in four short years is nothing short of astonishing.

The author then points out that:

In January 2003, I argued that toppling Saddam's tyranny in Iraq would do two things: begin the process of fostering political choice (democracy) in the Middle East and bring al-Qaida onto a battlefield not of its choosing. Moreover, that battlefield would be largely manned by Muslim allies, exposing the great fractures within Islam and the Middle East that al-Qaida's strategists tried to mask by portraying America as "the enemy."

And, indeed, both have happened. Of course, Iraq has had three successful elections. But also note that Sunni Arab Anbar tribesmen have even joined the fight against al Qaeda.

The Political Economy of Alternative Energy The Political Economy of Alternative Energy

TCS Daily: The Political Economy of Alternative Energy looks at the economics of carbon offsets, energy subsidies, etc. and finds that most such ideas are bad economics. This is related to my earlier posts: A tale of two markets and Carbon Cap and Charade.

Gore Tells Congressional Panel: I Don’t Exhale Gore Tells Congressional Panel: I Don’t Exhale

ScrappleFace: Gore Tells Congressional Panel: I Don’t Exhale:

(2007-03-21) — Oscar-winning filmmaker Al Gore, testifying Wednesday before a Congressional panel on global warming, revealed a little-known technique he has used for years to reduce his personal greenhouse gas emissions.

“I don’t exhale, and I haven’t since about 1991,” said the full-figured Mr. Gore. “Science shows there’s nothing wrong with humans breathing per se, it’s just the exhaling of carbon dioxide that threatens to bring our world to a premature, fiery, water-drenched apocalyptic end.”

Mr. Gore, still a Democrat party favorite to win the White House in the year 2000, said he also reduces his so-called “carbon footprint” by giving speeches and making movies to convince other people to cut their greenhouse gas production, thereby offsetting the emissions generated by his own global travel in private jets as well as SUVs and limousines.

“Leveraging the small efforts of millions of ordinary people is a very democratic way of achieving carbon-neutrality,” Mr. Gore said.

“It’s a team effort,” he added, while displaying a Powerpoint slide of the acronym: TEAM = Together Everyone Atones for Me.

Slouching Toward Socialized Medicine? Slouching Toward Socialized Medicine?

TCS Daily: Slouching Toward Socialized Medicine? points at the trend towards socializing our medical system. I find this esp. horrifying given my free market orientation. Of particular note:

That would be bad for erstwhile slackers of Generation X and Gen Next. It would be even worse for the rest of the country. That's because the slouch could easily become a straitjacket, for any move toward state-run healthcare will happen in the context of already exploding debt.

Even if they've already paid off their student loans (snicker) and have exactly no credit card debt (giggles giving way to loud gasps of laughter), X-ers and Nexters are already up to their eyeballs in debt for the big three entitlement programs - Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke recently testified to Congress, "Expenditures for entitlement programs are projected to rise sharply over the next few decades." They're being driven by a combination of increasing life expectancies and decreasing fertility.

Spending on the big three currently amounts to more than 8 percent of America's GDP. That will rise to more than 10 percent in 2015; and to more than 15 percent in 2030, if projections by the Congressional Budget Office hold true. The percentage of Americans more than 65 years old is also expected to increase pretty dramatically too, from 12 percent of the U.S. population to 19 percent in 2030.

That puts the slouch towards socialized medicine in its proper context.

No one knows what a government-run health care system would cost. (John Edwards put the price of his universal care plan at $90 to $120 billion per year.) But it is almost certain to be far more expensive and far less efficient than advertised.

John Edwards can maybe be forgiven for his politcally driven optimism here. After all, this is someone who has made millions by driving up health care costs. But how do you control costs while disengaging supply even more from demand? Especially when there are always reasons to add new mandates?

We abandoned our no-fault insurance here in Colorado because in the end, the legislature had piled more and more mandates on the program. By the end, not only were Chiropractors being paid (at quite high rates), but so was aroma therapy. Of course, the obvious answer is to put ever stricter controls on payments for services. But that again ignores supply and demand, and as the pressure to keep down costs escalates, reasons for people to spend the decade or so after college becoming physicians will shrink. When I was in college, the best and the brightest went ot medical school. No more.

For those supporting this slouching towards socialized medicine, presumably in sympathy for those unable (or choosing not) to pay for their own healthcare, the inevitable reduction in quality and quantity of medical care will presumably not be of great concern. But I worry because in the next decade or so, I will likely be availing myself of socialized medicine (in the form of Medicare), and I frankly don't look forward to long lines and refusals for life saving procedures. And I worry about the pressure that this will all put on my offspring.

McGovernism Returns McGovernism Returns

WSJ: McGovernism Returns: Iraq and the "Come home, America" Democrats looks at the Democrats attempts to impose operational restrictions on our Commander In Chief in a time of war and a timetable for withdrawl from Iraq. It is, of course, outside their Constitituional powers to do so, and falls right into the hands of our enemies. Of particular note:

What is perhaps most striking about the Democratic proposals, at least in terms of their timing, is that they are advocating withdrawal at precisely the moment when the new strategy, which has been in place barely a month, is beginning to show signs of progress.

As Gen. Peter Petraeus noted in a recent press briefing, the Iraqi Council of Ministers has agreed on a hydrocarbon law and sent it to the Iraqi Parliament for approval; sectarian killings in Baghdad have been lower over the past several weeks; sectarian displacement of families is down, with some families beginning to return to their neighborhoods; a number of tribes in Anbar Province have joined with coalition forces to fight terrorists operating there. The Iraqi government has completed the deployment of three Iraqi army brigades to the capital, and the Iraqi legislature passed a $41 billion budget that includes $10 billion for reconstruction and capital improvements. And Gen. Petraeus has only received two of the five brigades he has been promised. More are on the move.

It is still far too early to predict the outcome of events in Iraq. Whether the progress can be sustained is an open question--but the wisdom of rigid timetables for withdrawal and setting a cap on troops levels is not. These are deeply irresponsible ideas; if they were to come to pass a calamity, and rivers of blood, would follow in their wake.

Red-on-red in Waziristan Red-on-red in Waziristan

The Fourth Rail: Red-on-red in Waziristan looks at recent fighting between local Taliban and al Quaeda linked Uzbeks in the Waziristan region of Pakistan. Al Qaeda seems to have finally worn out its welcome with the Taliban, as it has with the Sunni Arabs in Anbar Province.

Armageddon and the Mahdi Armageddon and the Mahdi

WSJ: Armageddon and the Mahdi: How Ahmadinejad is giving Shiite Islam a scary name points out the belief that the 12th Iman is the Moslem messiah and will return at the end of time to establish the ideal Islamic society is little different from the similar Christian belief based on the book of Revelations. And, indeed, the Moslems of the early Islamic era had Christian and Jewish teachings readily available to them when this belief was established. Apparently, one difference between Sunni and Shi'a Islam is that the former believe that the Mahdi hasn't come yet, while the later believe that he has, but then has been occluded for the last thousand or so years. And most Moslems, Sunni or Shi'a, have a similar view to this as do most Christians - that the end of time will come some day, but probably not in our lifetimes. Interestingly, the Mahdi is expected to come with Jesus.

Nevertheless, the president of Iran, seems to be more akin to those Christians who believe that the end of time, judgement day, etc. are imminent. And that is what is scary about him - that he might try to hasten it, by, for example, using nuclear weapons on Israel.

Inhofe in Gore’s grill about his utility bill Inhofe in Gore’s grill about his utility bill

Tennessean.com: Sen. Inhofe in Gore’s grill about his utility bill:

U.S. Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma asked Gore to pledge to reduce his personal home energy to the national average within a year.

That was in reaction to reports of Gore’s large utility bill at his Nashville home.

Gore responded that he lives a “carbon neutral life” by buying carbon offsets to compensate for his energy use.

Inhoffe called the offsets “gimmicks” used by the wealthy.

Well, so much for Algore testifying about Global Warming. Presumably, Algore is talking about the fact that his company buys "carbon offsets" for him and its other employees. I agree with Inhofe that they are gimmicks - if the problem is urgent, then why take credit for CO2 usage by trees over the next 99 years to offset his extrodinarily high CO2 generation today? (Of course, assuming that the trees are standing in 99 years - which is problematic in many places they are being planted as carbon offsets).

Attorneys, Before You Blog, Check With Your Insurance Carrier Attorneys, Before You Blog, Check With Your Insurance Carrier

Law.com: Before You Blog, Check With Your Insurance Carrier says that at least one NJ law firm has banned blogging after its malpractice carrier told them that attorney blogging would make them uninsurable.

In theory, I can understand the argument - that the blogging attorneys could occasionally be taken as giving legal advise. But it is a sledge hammer approach to this, evidencing a lack of understanding of blogging on the part of the carrier (apparently Executive Risk Specialty, a unit of Chubb).

Iraqi Tribes Battle al-Qaeda. 39 Terrorists Killed Iraqi Tribes Battle al-Qaeda. 39 Terrorists Killed

Pajamas Media: FLASH: Iraqi Tribes Battle al-Qaeda. 39 Terrorists Killed. Also some local police and tribal fighters. Nevertheless, a very good sign that al Qaeda has overstayed its welcome in Anbar Province.

Vista: Slow And Dangerous Vista: Slow And Dangerous

Buisness Week: Vista: Slow And Dangerous pans the new security features in Microsoft's Vista. If User Account Control (UAC) is turned on, you get repeatedly interrupted for stuff you have no idea what it is, like Windows notifying MSFT of something. But turning it off leaves you as open as under Windows XP.

Personally, I am quite happy not using Windows Vista. The problem is that MSFT has apparently browbeat most of its major vendors into installing it on their computers. I have asked both Dell and HP if I could buy an XP laptop, and neither seemed willing to provide one.

Don’t Hide Money In The Toilet: More Conversation With A Burglar Don’t Hide Money In The Toilet: More Conversation With A Burglar

Personal Finance Advice: Don’t Hide Money In The Toilet: More Conversation With A Burglar gives some good advice:

99% of the burglars on the street aren’t like the ones you see in the movies where stealing is their chosen profession. They are motivated by more sinister reasons. They are part of organized crime, they are part of a gang or, as in my case at the time, they are drug addicts.

When you realize that you are most likely hiding your money away from people described above and not the professional burglars you see in the movies and on TV, it gives a different perspective of where you absolutely shouldn’t be hiding your money.

What he explained was that when people hide their money, they usually think of a place where they would never look themselves instead of where a burglar is unlikely to find the money.

In other words, don't hide your valuables from yourself, hide them from the burglars.

Whose Ox Is Gored? Whose Ox Is Gored?

WSJ: Whose Ox Is Gored? The media discover the former vice president's environmental exaggerations and hypocrisy.

The media are finally catching up with Al Gore. Criticism of his anti-global-warming franchise and his personal environmental record has gone beyond ankle-biting bloggers. It's now coming from the New York Times and the Nashville Tennessean, his hometown paper that put his birth, as a senator's son, on its front page back in 1948, and where a young Al Gore Jr. worked for five years as a journalist.

Last Tuesday, the Times reported that several eminent scientists "argue that some of Mr. Gore's central points [on global warming] are exaggerated and erroneous." The Tenessean reported yesterday that Mr. Gore received $570,000 in royalties from the owners of zinc mines who held mineral leases on his farm. The mines, which closed in 2003 but are scheduled to reopen under a new operator later this year, "emitted thousands of pounds of toxic substances and several times, the water discharged from the mines into nearby rivers had levels of toxins above what was legal."

All of this comes in the wake of the enormous publicity Mr. Gore received after his documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Oscar. The film features Mr. Gore reprising his famous sighing and lamenting how the average American's energy use is greedily off the charts. At the film's end viewers are asked, "Are you ready to change the way you live?"

And, of course, he isn't. Indeed, if anything, his lifestyle has gotten progressively more prolifigate as his wealth and fame have increased.

THE IRAQ SURGE:WHY IT'S WORKING THE IRAQ SURGE:WHY IT'S WORKING

GORDON CUCULLU: THE IRAQ SURGE:WHY IT'S WORKING describes an interview with Gen. David Petraeus, who suggested reasons that the "surge" is working. A lot of its success so far can be attributed to the embedding of our troops with Iraqi security forces and placing them in the neighborhoods of Baghdad. I think a good analogy would be to neighborhood policing. One big result has been a significant increase in actionable intelligence. Indeed, the security forces have gone from too little intelligence to too much to process. But Petraeus suggests that the later situation is always far preferable to the former. He also talks about how many of the tribal chiefs in Anbar Provence have signed on, determining that enough is enough when it comes to al Qaeda. Indeed, their members are now signing on with the government in droves - a far cry from even six months ago, when the Iraqi security forces were almost entirely composed of Shi'a and Kurds.

Taking closer look at Al Gore's truth Taking closer look at Al Gore's truth

One Last Thing:Taking closer look at Al Gore's truth ignores Al Gore's hypocracy, and looks at four different assertions of his:

(1) Earth's climate is getting warmer;
(2) man is responsible in substantial part for this change;
(3) this change will result in net harm; and
(4) this change can be reversed by man.

And then attacks each one.

Why Phishing Works Why Phishing Works

Why Phishing Works is a nice description of many of the tricks used in phishing. They give some examples and the results of testing a group of people to see if they can detect bogus web pages. I pride myself on my ability to detect such, and yet, I suspect I would have missed on a couple of them.

Up or down? Up or down?

Up or Down? A Male Economist’s Manifesto on the Toilet Seat Etiquette by economist Jay Pil Choi is a good example of why economists have a place in this world.

Almost every guy who has had the pleasure of living around one or more females has run into the problem that somehow it is the guy's fault when the female falls in when she forgets to put the seat down on the toilet before use. The author shows that the economically most efficient algorithm in most instances is the "selfish" rule where the user of a toilet puts the seat where he or she needs it before use, and then leaves it there afterwords. It is only in the extreme situations where it is more efficient to have either an "always up" or "always down" rule. For example, growing up in a family of six males and one female, it would have been better to have an "up" rule, except that she (my mother) made it clear that that meant that we would have to clean the toilets too. Which changes the situation to one where a "down" rule was preferable. (Actually, being grossed out coming downstairs, she pretty much let us use the "selfish" rule in the bathrooms there, and imposed the "down" rule upstairs in the bathrooms she used).

Nevertheless, this is ammunition for every guy facing the prospect of an irate woman who tries to tell him that it was his fault that she didn't check and fell in in the middle of the night.

Panic in Tehran Over Defections Panic in Tehran Over Defections

Panic in Tehran Over Defections. Uh oh. Another one.

WASHINGTON -- The Iranian government is in full damage control mode over the recent defection of a top Revolutionary Guard general and former deputy defense minister..

Iranian government officials have issued a series of contradictory claims about the defection of Gen. Alireza Asgari, 63, who "disappeared" from his hotel room in Istanbul, Turkey on Feb. 7 and reportedly defected to the United States.

But in recent days, the mood within intelligence circles in Tehran has turned to panic as rumors have begun to circulate that a second well-placed Revolutionary Guards general has defected...

In recent days, intelligence circles in Tehran have been awash with rumors of a second high-level defection to the Americans of a Revolutionary Guards intelligence officer, Brig. Gen. Seyed Mohammad Soltani.

Gen. Soltani is a career intelligence officer, who took over as head of the Persian Gulf bureau of Rev. Guards intelligence in October 2006. On Feb. 8, just one day after Gen Asgari disappeared in Istanbul, Gen. Soltani traveled to Bandar Abbas, where he was scheduled to inspect an intelligence listening post. Instead, he vanished.

'No Money Down' Falls Flat 'No Money Down' Falls Flat

Steven Pearlstein in the WaPo: 'No Money Down' Falls Flat talks about why we are where we are in the mortgage market. And he gives a bit more information about "tranches."

In the old days, when my father was first involved in the mortgage industry (in his case, representing a S&L as an attorney and sitting on its board of directors), mortgage lenders, like Savings and Loans, loaned money for mortgages, which they then kept and serviced until paid off. Later, the selling, holding, and servicing of loans were all split up into separate functions where different parties specialized. The mortgages were packaged and sold in large batches or bundles. The S&Ls pretty much found themselves in the mortgage selling end of the business. And when they found that they could grow much more quickly this way, a lot of them got in trouble and collapsed.

This newest financial scandal is a result of even more sophistication in the mortgage market. Instead of just packaging mortgages into bundles to be sold as securities, the risks in the bundles (the tranches) were split up too, with some of the tranches for a bundle being low risk and low return, while others are high risk and high return.

Part of the problem is that high risk/high return tranches are being bought by parties that shouldn't, such as pension funds trying to make up for previous losses (see "Taxpayers should be afraid, really afraid" below). The other side of the equation is that there are a lot of people who have borrowed to buy overpriced houses (due to the increased demand caused by this whole scheme) using gimmick mortgages, now are rapidly finding themselves over their heads. And, thus, we can expect the foreclosures to continue, if not increase.

Which gets us to part of the flaw in the whole scheme.

And therein lies the problem: an incentive structure that encourages originators to write risky loans, collect the big fees and let someone else suffer the consequences.

In other words, since the originators no longer have to either hold the loans or service them, their incentive is to sell them, and as the market got more competitive for higher quality borrowers, the originators became ever more ingenious, inventing every more fanciful ways to get people into mortgages.

What we have here is a failure of common sense. With occasional exceptions, bankers shouldn't make -- or be allowed to make -- mortgage loans that require no money down and no documentation of income to people who won't be able to afford the monthly payments if interest rates rise, house prices fall or the roof springs a leak. It's not a whole lot more complicated than that.

The 'Surge' Is Succeeding The 'Surge' Is Succeeding

Robert Kagan (WaPo): The 'Surge' Is Succeeding is frankly a surprised coming from a newspaper that has opposed most of what this President has tried to do in Iraq.

A front-page story in The Post last week suggested that the Bush administration has no backup plan in case the surge in Iraq doesn't work. I wonder if The Post and other newspapers have a backup plan in case it does.

Leading journalists have been reporting for some time that the war was hopeless, a fiasco that could not be salvaged by more troops and a new counterinsurgency strategy. The conventional wisdom in December held that sending more troops was politically impossible after the antiwar tenor of the midterm elections. It was practically impossible because the extra troops didn't exist. Even if the troops did exist, they could not make a difference.

Four months later, the once insurmountable political opposition has been surmounted. The nonexistent troops are flowing into Iraq. And though it is still early and horrible acts of violence continue, there is substantial evidence that the new counterinsurgency strategy, backed by the infusion of new forces, is having a significant effect.

Be More Than You Can Be Be More Than You Can Be

Wired: Be More Than You Can Be tells of a number of new things that DARPA is doing to enhance the soldier of the future. For example, there is the "glove" that you can put on, and it will either dramatically cool or heat your body, as desired. It turns out that one of the big problems with working out is muscles overheating, and not fatigue, per se, and so by coooling the body this way, endurance can be significantly increased.

So, in another decade or so, we can expect our soldiers to be stronger and faster, be able to think faster and better, easily survive and operate in extremes of heat and cold, and maybe even go into hybernation when wounded. All thanks to DARPA adding biological systems to its mandate.

Al Gore - serial exaggerator Al Gore - serial exaggerator

NYT: From a Rapt Audience, a Call to Cool the Hype points out that, hey wait a minute, there isn't a consensus on Global Warming and that Al Gore seems to be exaggerating a bit. Maybe the oceans will rise 20 inches, not 20 feet. That sort of thing. Gore responds that the details don't really matter, it is what is in his heart that does. Sounds a bit familiar doesn't it? It reminds of Dan Rather and his Fake but Accurate statements.

Taxpayers should be afraid, really afraid Taxpayers should be afraid, really afraid

Economist.com: Yes, they can go down too points out that some of the subprime mortgage market is being funded by state and local pension plans trying to recoup losses.

It's a pretty common story: investors with big losses behave essentially like gamblers in a casino, trying to double down in order to recover their previous position. In this case, state and local pensions have enormous unfunded liabilities. This is due in part to unrealistic valuations of their asset base during the stock market bubble, which left them with an enormous hole when the bubble collapsed. It is also due to the massively overgenerous promises politicians made, in part because the bubble inflated tax revenues to unrealistic levels in many localities, and in part because until recently they didn't have to account for their pension liabilities the way private companies do, which made big boosts for public sector pensions feel like a freebie for their supporters in the civil service unions.

So now you have these pension funds pouring into risky instruments that promise higher potential returns in order to close up the holes. Instruments that, from the quotation, they don't understand too well, or keep track of too closely. It's not entirely clear that this fellow grasped the fact that the reason the CDO's offered such attractive returns was that they were extremely risky, potentially leaving him with nothing at all.

Pension funds are meant to cover one of the most predictible risks of all: the risk of growing old. I find it hard to believe that responsible fund managers could be pouring much cash into the riskier tranches of credit derivatives...

Insurgent leader nabbed in Iraq raid Insurgent leader nabbed in Iraq raid

Insurgent leader nabbed in Iraq raid

BAGHDAD - The shadowy leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, an al-Qaida-inspired group that challenged the authority of Iraq's government, was captured Friday in a raid on the western outskirts of Baghdad, an Iraqi military spokesman said.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi was arrested along with several other insurgents in a raid in the town of Abu Ghraib

A lot of good news here. The Iraqi security people are getting good tips now, and many of the Sunnis seem to be turning against the terrorists. And, of course, another terrorist figurehead getting nailed.

Classical Values : PETA agrees Classical Values : PETA agrees

Classical Values: PETA agrees -- with me! points out that if Al Gore truly was worried about Global Warming, he would become a vegitarian. After all, a lot of our energy is spent converting plant to animal flesh. Add to that the amount of CO2 and Methane generated by our meat animals. So, no surprise:

Norfolk, Va. -- This morning, PETA sent a letter to former vice president Al Gore explaining to him that the best way to fight global warming is to go vegetarian and offering to cook him faux "fried chicken" as an introduction to meat-free meals. In its letter, PETA points out that Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth--which starkly outlines the potentially catastrophic effects of global warming and just won the Academy Award for "Best Documentary"--has failed to address the fact that the meat industry is the largest contributor to greenhouse-gas emissions.

Panic in Tehran Panic in Tehran

Pajamas Media: Panic in Tehran indicates the possibility that former Iranian deputy defense minister Ali Reza Asgari has disappeared and possibly defected to the west (and possibly the U.S.)

The recent disappearance of Ali Reza Asgari, Iran’s former deputy defense minister who was on a visit to Istanbul has been a mystery for the past several days. Now a report by the Arabic newspaper Al Sharq Al Wasat says that Asgari defected to the US after arriving in Istanbul from Damascus on February 7th.

Although the story has not been confirmed by any sovereign authority, it is already evident that the saga has created panic inside Ahmadinejad’s administration. Soon after his disappearance was discovered, Iran dispatched an operations team to Ankara to help the Turkish authorities to look for him. At the same time, a public relations campaign was launched with Iranian minister Mottaki has doing his best to downplay Asgari’s importance as an official in order to reduce the damage to the Iranian government’s image.

He wasn’t fooling anyone. It is clear that Asgari is a man privy to numerous secrets which Iran desperately does not want revealed. As well as being a former deputy defence Minister, Asgari was also a General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). The IRGC, more than any other branch of Iran’s armed forces, is aware of, and has access to Iran’s nuclear program. Its members are in charge of monitoring and protecting Iran’s nuclear installations, and scientists.

Furthermore, the IRGC is in charge of developing and testing Iran’s missiles, an arsenal which Iran has threatened to use if attacked. Last but not least, the IRGC is in charge of training and arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iraqi Shiite militants in Iraq.

It appears that there is some confirmation that he has fled to the West and is cooperating with us. Couldn't happen to a more deserving Islamic Republic.

IRAQ THE MODEL: Notes From Baghdad IRAQ THE MODEL: Notes From Baghdad

IRAQ THE MODELNotes From Baghdad: Open liquor stores and other signs of the surge's success. How great is it, that a couple of guys, MOHAMMED FADHIL AND OMAR FADHIL, in Iraq can blog about what is really going on there, and it can be republished in the WSJ?

They paint a fairly positive picture of what the Iraqi government is calling "Operation Imposing the Law." The terrorists on both sides are mostly laying low, hiding among the populace, and their leadership has fled, some to outside the country: Syria for the Sunnis and Iran for the Shi'a. There are no safe havens now, not even Mosques - why shouldn't Muslim Iraqi security forces be able to go in and check out their places of worship? Also, stores are reopening and people moving back into mixed neighborhoods, reacquring their old homes.

One of the more interesting points is that some liquor stores are reopening. This is significant because the major force behind Sunni terrorism is Wahhabi fanaticism. And, as in Afganistan, it is they who are trying to bring everyone back to a 7th Century (CE) morality, where alcohol is forbidden (as is music, female skin, etc.) For the first time in a long time, the liquor store owners are not (as) scared that Muslim fundamentalists will destroy their businesses.

The Big Green Fuel Lie The Big Green Fuel Lie

Independent: The Big Green Fuel Lie points out that biofuels are maybe, just maybe, not the answer to all of our problems. It turns out that a lot of rain forests have been cleared to grow huge tracks of sugar cane. That sort of thing.

IraqPundit: "A few signs of progress." IraqPundit: "A few signs of progress."

IraqPundit: "A few signs of progress" sounds cautiously optimistic. Yes, maybe the Bahgdadis are getting their hopes up a bit, esp. the Sunni moving back into mixed neighborhoods. But still, they see some good signs right now, and the NYT seems determined to misportray them.

Numbers Drop for the Married With Children Numbers Drop for the Married With Children

WaPo: Numbers Drop for the Married With Children says a lot more than the headline would indicate. In particular, marriage is becoming a class, education, and wealth issue. The most educated, most affluent, are still getting married and mostly staying together. But the further down the income and education hierarchy you go, the more kids you find born out of wedlock and the more you find being raised in a single parent household.

Part of the much flaunted growing wealth inequality can be attributed to this dynamic. The rich and educated are getting more so because of their marriages. Married men work harder and earn more than their unmarried cohorts. Plus, combining two good salaries results in an even higher combined wage.

Baghdad Dispatch: Street Justice Baghdad Dispatch: Street Justice

Pajamas Media: Baghdad Dispatch: Street Justice

As we noted more than once before, Operation “Imposing Law” is an escalating effort with military and political components. After the troops fixed their feet on the streets of Baghdad, PM Maliki and the troops are pushing forward with both components...

Violent incidents are still decreasing in number and impact in Baghdad. Yesterday for instance the only reported incident was the abduction of an adviser to the minister of defense by gunmen in western Baghdad. It was less than 24 hours until the security forces succeeded in freeing the abducted general and arresting 4 of his captors.

Elsewhere in the capital the troops are using not only guns and Humvees, but also shovels and bulldozers. In areas such as Karrada and Palestine Street Iraqi soldiers and workers of the Baghdad municipal services are working on removing trespasses on public property and irregular roadblocks set by locals at earlier times. The measure sparked anger and dismay among some people whose businesses were damaged because the bulldozers also removed irregular kiosks and stalls.

Again, pretty good news, considering.

Coalition Forces Move Into Sadr City Coalition Forces Move Into Sadr City

Mudville Gazette: Coalition Forces Move Into Sadr City points out that even in the heart of the Shi'a resistance, we are making significant progress in Iraq.

Part of the plan in the Baghdad area is to implement "Joint Security Stations" jointly manned around the clock by Iraqi army, police, and U.S. troops, all living and working together. Interestingly, the Sadr City leaders seem to have welcomed this, their first Joint Security Station, presumably hoping to stem the violence that their very poor part of Baghdad has been experiencing.

What is I think exciting is that we are trying new things, with this new commander in Iraq. And it isn't one size fits all, as evidenced by the Anbar Salvation Council mentioned in my previous post. The rural nature of Anbar calls for one type of approach, and the urban nature of Baghdad calls for quite a different one. And yet, both rely on putting the Iraqis out in front and giving them primary responsibility for their own security.

The Amiriya Battle in Anbar Province The Amiriya Battle in Anbar Province

The Fourth Rail: The Amiriya Battle has a lot of detail about the battle last week between insurgents and Iraqi security forces (with American air support) in the village of Amiriya, just south of Fallujah, in Anbar province. In the fight, at least 50 al Qaeda were killed, and 80 captured. Some estimates are several times that, for minimal loss of life on the other side.

Apparently, some 200-300 al Qaeda entered Amiriya Thursday toattack a prominent leader of the Anbar Salvation Council, the grouping of local tribes and Baathists, and former insurgents who now oppose al-Qaeda in Iraqi. They were able to hold off the al Qaeda fighters long enough for Iraqi police and army personel to stream into the village.

Al Qaeda appears to be rapidly losing strength in al Anbar Province, and a good part of that is a result of the formation of the Anbar Salvation Council, where the Iraqi government is working in partnership with a majority of the Anbar tribes to impose security in the region. Part of this weakness on the part of al Qaeda is evident in that they are moving back towards terrorism there, as opposed to larger operations like this one, where they get their butt kicked by the Iraqi government forces, now agumented by Anbar tribesmen.

Newt: 'MAKE IT WORK' Newt: 'MAKE IT WORK'

Interview with Newt Gingrich in the NY Post: 'MAKE IT WORK'. Gingrich is probably the most insightful major league politician right now, and he nails the Administration for its failures, both domestically (esp. Katrina) and in Iraq. What he wants is a transformative, or insurgent, Republican to win in 2008, and it seems his money is on Giuliani.

Sunni and Shiite Muslims - Choosing a Sect Sunni and Shiite Muslims - Choosing a Sect

Noah Feldman in the NYT: Sunni and Shiite Muslims - Choosing a Sect points out that it used to be fairly easy for the U.S. to pick a side in the Sunni/Shi'a debate. We would inevitably choose the Sunni side. Feldman suggested that it was because of the realist/ Arabist school of thought in the State Department. Maybe. But part of Iraq's problem right now is that the Protestant British, seeing a lot more similarity between their religion and Sunni Islam than they did with the more Catholic looking Shi'a, and more comfortable with the desert Beduins than the sophisticated townsmen, threw three somewhat disparate former Ottoman regions togther based on oil, and then gave control to the minority Sunni Arabs, who then maintained their control over the majority with ever increasing levels of force, violence, and brutality.

But what Feldman seems to miss is that our focus has changed from supporting our guys in power, whoever they are, as long as they were our "allies", to self-determination. We primarily support the Shi'a in Iraq right now because they are the distinct majority. Combining them with the American leaning Iraqi Kurds (who are happy just to be left alone), and you have between 80% and 85% of the Iraqi population. Supporting the Sunni Arabs, as we had done in the past, would mean supporting a 15%-20% minority. And that philosphy is becoming the driving force behind many of our choices in the Middle East as to which side to back.

Self determination is a much more viable guide to picking sides for a number of reasons than any belief that the Sunnis are because their religion is more pure, or that the Shi'a version of Islam is more flexible. First, self determination and majority rule are morally superior. And secondly, majority rule ultimately will reduce ethnic pressures of a minority using force and brutality to maintain control over a minority.

How Gore's massive energy consumption saves the world How Gore's massive energy consumption saves the world

Mark Steyn: How Gore's massive energy consumption saves the world hits all the hot spots about the Gore hypocracy on his energy usage justified through carbon offsets sold to him by his own company. Of course, Steyn is a bit more nasty about it than most have been. He did remind us though about the close ties between the Sens. Gore and Occidental Petroleum. I'd forgotten that.

G.O.R.E. (Get Off Renewing Energy) G.O.R.E. (Get Off Renewing Energy)

This Day by Day Cartoon by Chris Muir manages to use three of my Blogger labels at once. Double click for a bigger image.

Carbon Cap and Charade Carbon Cap and Charade

WSJ: Cap and Charade: The political and business self-interest behind carbon limits points out that the cap-and-trade makes no sense until you have government imposed caps. There is nothing of value to trade until the government creates an artificial monopoly here in terms of caps on pollution. And, thus, you see why a lot of companies are jumping on the bandwagon.

The difficulties don't lie with the trading, but with the cap, which is where the companies lobbying for restrictions come in. James Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy, put it plainly earlier this year: "If you're not at the table when these negotiations are going on, you're going to be on the menu." Translation: If a cap is coming, better to design it in a way that you profit from it, instead of being killed by it.

Which is why the emphasis really should be cap-and-trade. It's all about the cap, because without it there's no trading. We don't buy our daily ration of oxygen because it's in abundant supply. Same with carbon dioxide--there's no constraint on your ability to produce CO2 until the government creates one...

By far the biggest question, however, is where the cap is set. The trading of emissions credits does nothing to lower the quantity of emissions--it merely shifts around the right to emit. It's the cap that sets the amount of CO2 put into the air. And as Europe has learned, that figure is a political football unto itself. When the EU started emissions trading in 2005, the price of a ton of CO2 quickly tripled before cratering when participants realized that the cap hadn't been set low enough to create a genuine shortage.

Some of the comments are good to, including this one from David Skocik - Dover, Del. titled: No Clothes, Great Footprints:

Not satisfied with inventing the Internet, Al Gore has come up with something even better. Not only has he perfected carbon footprints, he's figured out a way to sell them and won an academic award for doing so.

This is trading in potential futures that will produce nothing except billions in cash to environmental hucksters. Worse, when government bureaucrats--especially at the federal level--put themselves in charge of creating standards, the emphasis immediately shifts from the common good to revenue creation...

But as Economics 101 teaches, nothing is done without cost. And every time the government adds to the bottom line of producing anything, whether widgets, cars or energy, it will always be passed along to Joe and Sally Six Pack...

As for Al Gore, the emperor may have no clothes but he's got great footprints.

Iraq Trip Report (SWJ Blog) Iraq Trip Report (SWJ Blog)

Iraq Trip Report (SWJ Blog) has some good news and some bad news as far as things are going in Iraq.

1. In the south, the U.S. doing little. It is the Britt's responsibility, and they haven't been up to it. Good news is that there is little ethnic cleansing.


2. In Anbar, 60% of the tribes have signed on with the government. We have already seen good results there.


3. In Baghdad, the ethnic cleansing of the Sunni Arabs progresses. This is one place where the U.S. can (and is) intervene.


4. In Baghdad, the Sunni extremists continue their murdering of innocents, mostly Shi'a (and they wonder why the object of the Shi'a ethnic cleansing?)

There is quite a bit more, including a lot of suggestions.

Medical statistics: Signs of the times Medical statistics: Signs of the times

Economist: Medical statistics: Signs of the times points out that not all medical studies are equal in their validity. It is one thing to do a double blind study testing one hypothesis. But when researchers try to dig results out of multiple variables, they often violate basic statistics. The author gives the example that:

PEOPLE born under the astrological sign of Leo are 15% more likely to be admitted to hospital with gastric bleeding than those born under the other 11 signs. Sagittarians are 38% more likely than others to land up there because of a broken arm.

All because this sort of statistics is being misused.

The real Al Gore The real Al Gore

Weekly Standard: Bonnie Prince Al takes a look at the real Al Gore in view of all those who dream of the alternate reality of him having managed to litigate his way into the White House in 2000. Gore has clay feet, and they aren't pretty.

Lower body count indicates success with Baghdad plan Lower body count indicates success with Baghdad plan

Wilmington Star: Lower body count indicates success with Baghdad plan:

Baghdad, Iraq: The Baghdad security operation has been under way less than three weeks, but it has already registered a success: a sharp drop in the number of bullet-riddled bodies found in the streets - victims of sectarian death squads.

The number of bodies found so far this month in Baghdad - most of them shot and showing signs of torture - has dropped by nearly 50 percent to 494 as of Monday night, compared with 954 in January and 1,222 in December, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

Since the crackdown was formally launched Feb. 14, a total of 164 bodies had been found in the capital as of Monday, according to AP figures, which are compiled from police reports. The AP count showed 390 bodies were discovered in the same period in January.

More good news in Iraq. The "Surge" is just started and has had an affect already.

Dozens of al Qaeda killed in Anbar Dozens of al Qaeda killed in Anbar

al Reuters: Dozens of al Qaeda killed in Anbar: Iraq police.

A police official in the area, Ahmed al-Falluji, put the number of militants killed at 70, with three police officers killed. There was no immediate verification of the numbers.

Witnesses said dozens of al Qaeda members attacked the village, prompting residents to flee and seek help from Iraqi security forces, who sent in police and soldiers.

This is good news - obviously that the police were able to kill so many al Qaeda, but probably more importantly that these villagers had sided with the Iraqi government against foreign fighters, and then called them for help when attacked by al Qaeda. At least here, our policy in Anbar Province of enlisting the aid of the tribes is working out.

My thoughts on carbon offsetting, etc. My thoughts on carbon offsetting, etc.

As many know, there has been a real hubub since Al Gore won an Oscar for his movie on Global Warming AND was found to be using much more than his share of carbon based energy. He apparently justifies his prolifigate usage through a system of carbon offsetting, where he purchases carbon offsets (apparently from himself, but that is a different story).

But the more that carbon offsetting is investigated, the dodgier it looks. For example, one scheme that has been played out more than once is for the people wanting carbon offsets to purchase the planting of trees in Third World countries. They then took the expected carbon absorption of the trees over the next 99 years to offset their current carbon emission footprint.

So, no surprise that a lot of people have jumped on this scheme and pointed out its idiocy and hypocracy. For the most part, it just doesn't work. If there is CO2 generated Global Warming, CO2 absorption 98 years from now is essentially irrelevant. Plus it has all sorts of adverse economic incentives.

But maybe something good will come of this. First, it may actually reduce some of this bogus carbon offset trading. And that may lead to some of the more prolifigate abusers, like Mr. Gore, cleaning up their own act. The abject hypocacy of someone who uses over 20 times the national average of energy to power one of his three mansions and then lectures the rest of us on our duty to reduce this sort of thing may ultimately be called for what it is.

Cool Business Ideas Cool Business Ideas

Taranto in his WSJ Best of the Web Today has a bunch of: Cool Business Ideas:

Our item yesterday on Al Gore's "carbon offset" scheme leads reader Tom Tyson to make the former vice president an offer:

I've recently been car shopping. My wife really likes the Toyota Prius, and it sure is a very nice car. I certainly don't object to getting better gas mileage. The only problem is that we can get a Matrix--another very nice car of similar size--for $5,000 less. If Al is interested, I'd be happy to sell him some carbon offsets for $5,000 and then go and buy the Prius!

Feel free to send Al my email address.

Mr. Gore, the ball is in your court. Reader Dan Carter takes the idea a step further:

With all of the concern about carbon "footprint" these days, I've decided to start my own carbon offset business to help the wealthy feel less guilty about their extravagance. Perhaps you would be kind enough to publicize my venture.

My business model is to don the hair shirt of self-denial in exchange for cash payment so that my clients can lead fuller, more enriching lives without worrying about carbon dioxide. And, just so there's no question about the validity of the offset, I'm not building wind farms or giving away fluorescent light bulbs. No, I'm offering to forgo real pleasures so that others may enjoy them.

A few examples from my brochure:

Want to fly to Paris in your Gulfstream? Hey, who doesn't--but the kind of CO2 emissions from a trip like that will come back to haunt you when global warming hits. But what if you persuaded someone else to cancel a similar trip? That's where I come in: For a modest fee of $10,000, I won't fly to Paris on a Gulfstream this spring, so your trip will be carbon-neutral, and you can stroll guilt-free along the Champs Elysées.

Though it's getting tougher and tougher to impress the ladies with a car these days, they still swoon for something really exclusive, like the $1.4 million Bugatti Veyron. But how can you sell your commitment to the Earth when you're behind the wheel of a 1,000-horsepower machine that, at its top speed of 230 mph, sucks up 26 gallons of gas in just 12 minutes? Easy. Let me do the conserving in a three-year-old Camry while you get busy in the Bugatti. For $70,000--just a 5% premium over sticker price--I won't buy a Veyron at any time in the next five years.

Household electrical usage is in the news this week after we learned that a prominent Democrat spends 10 times the U.S. average on his electric bill. Of course, more electricity means more fuel burned in a power plant and more CO2 spewed into the air, and that's just the kind of attention you don't need. So what are you going to do about that fabulous 2,500-square-foot addition you just got back from the architects? Quit fretting and tell the builder to get started! Your added carbon footprint will be neutralized because, for $25,000, I'll scratch my add-on plans for 10 years.

With some cooperation and ingenuity, we can be back in the Little Ice Age in no time!

This is such a great idea, it's almost too good to be true!

Global Warming Carbon Offsets - Save the Earth!!! Global Warming Carbon Offsets - Save the Earth!!!

Apparently, the realization that there is a market for carbon offsets to allow the Al Gores to be carbon neutral despite expending huge amounts of carbon based energy is starting a booming business. For example, the following are now available on eBay:

• Carbon Neutral Offsets from someone who wants to share his family's good fortune at being low carbon users.


• Carbon Neutral T-Shirts


• Carbon Credit Neutral - The Game.

Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming,

National Geographic: Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says.

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human- induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory...Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun. "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets. Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories. "Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said. By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

The conclusion of the article should surprise no one:

Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.

And it is likely that it is being received even less well by those scientists making money on grants for finding Global Warming.

Interesting that it was a Russian scientist pointing this out here. He may be a little less under the pressure of the Global Warming lobby here in the U.S.

Democrats vote to bar secret union ballots Democrats vote to bar secret union ballots

WSJ: Walter Reuther's Ghost: Democrats vote to bar secret union ballots points out that organized labor at the national level is trying to do what they failed this month to do here in Colorado: strip prospective union members of the right to a secret ballot. Not surprisingly either, it is called the "Employee Free Choice Act", as in, if passed it will strip employees of the right to a free choice. This is Orwell speak at its worst. Luckily, it looks likely to be fillibustered in the Senate, and if it does pass, the President is likely to veto it.

A tale of two markets A tale of two markets

Economist.com: A tale of two markets takes up where Tyler Cowen left off as to the economic problems with carbon offsets. I think the big difference is that they are slightly better at getting their point across than Cowen was.

But it is fairly simple. Assume for a minute that Al Gore had been paying to have trees planted in Africa to generate the Carbon Offsets that he used to justify his proligate expenditure of energy at his mansion in Tennesee. The result is that the demand for energy in Tennesee will be increasing, providing price signals to producers to build more capacity. Similarly, the demand for forests in Uganda will also be increasing, pushing the price up and giving a price signal to dispossess more people from their land to do this.

Notice a couple of things here. First, there is no real pressure to increase capacity of clean energy in Tenn. Rather, the entire demand curve for energy has moved up and out. And secondly, the two sides of the Carbon Offset are worlds apart and of such different type that they only interact through the Carbon Offsets. And, of course, given the economics involved, that, for example, it is far cheaper and easier to plant trees in Uganda than in the U.S., this is going to be accentuated.

Buying renewable non-carbon based energy in the U.S. to offset increased local usage has some surface appeal as being better than planting trees in Africa, but for much of this country, the heavy energy users are geographically separated from where you can economically build non-carbon based energy production. Thus, NYC uses a lot of power, but you can't put up solar panels nor wind turbines there. Rather, they have to be quite a ways away, even assumming decent technology, which we don't have yet. Probably the most economical location for either would be the intermountain west, where you have huge open spaces, a lot of wind, and few clouds.

But the transportation costs of electricity are quite high (and at present might even add to global warming due to the frictional loss of electricity transmitted over distances). The result is, of course, that you can't just exchange power usage in a high power usage area for non-carbon based renewable energy production a thousand miles away on a one-to-one basis.

Of course, the Carbon Offsetters are doing even worse economically, even if they do try to replace energy use reduction with energy use at home because again the economics are that a reduction in energy use in South Africa (through providing the poor with Compact Flourescent bulbs) is a world apart from Tennesee. And the price signals in the later still say build more dirty power plants locally.

It's Not One Campaign It's Not One Campaign

National Journal: It's Not One Campaign suggests that there are two groups of major candidates for president right now. In the one group, consisting of McCain, Romney, and Edwards, the candidates are running for their nomination, expecting to be able to tack back to the middle if and when the get their nomination. In the second group, consisting of Obama and Clinton, the candidates are sure of their support from their party's base, and thus are already tacking to the middle to prepare for the general election. But then there is Guliani who is successfully doing both at once.

Of course, you could argue that at least Obama has to be doing this, as he is by far the most extreme of those six major party candidates, and thus has the furthest to go. Add to this that the African-American portion of the Democratic Party is one of that party's more liberal factions.

Nevertheless, the distinction here is most likely that for those candidates moving outwards in order to attract their party's base, their chances are long shots, and thus it is far more important to them to get the nomination than to assume that, and move to the center. Hillary, of course, is still the overall front runner, and so it makes perfect sense for her to be starting to reposition herself to be more attractive to swing voters. And Guliani is popular enough to start doing this too. But why Obama?

The (alleged) roots of today's wars The (alleged) roots of today's wars

USATODAY.com: The roots of today's wars argues that the root of today's wars, as with most of history, is ethnic, and that we delude ourselves when we think that it is about ideas. And the article faults the Bush Administration for its naive handling of Iraq, thinking that we could translate the diaglog in the Middle East through imposition of democracy.

Overall, I somewhat agree. However, I view Iraq somewhat similar to an earth quake, typically caused by two plates slipping by each other. Periodically, the pressure is released as the friction between them is overcome, resulting in earth quakes. What democracy has done in Iraq is acted as a lubricant, greasing the plates between the ethnic minorities. So, for a short period of time, we have an earth quake there. But by providing the grease, democracy should allow the ethnic minorities to live together more peacably in the future.

The problem in Iraq, as well as throughout much of the Third World, is that one ethnic minority will inevitably get control of a country. In Iraq, of course, it was the (then) 20% Sunni Arabs. And, throughout much of recorded history, such a minority could control the majority through force, intimidation, etc. But part of what has happened in the last decade or so is that countries have lost control over information. Thus, a persecuted minority can find out that there are other ways of living in this world. And with that knowledge, comes the pressure for change. If the Americans (and other First World countries) can democratically elect their government(s), then why not the Iraqis? And if the Iraqis can, then why not the Iranians and the Saudis? Why not the Chinese?

Which may be the best response to this article - that the new world information society is still so new that the ensuing drive for democracy hasn't had a chance to work its way through the Third World yet. After all, we are overcoming millenia of minority rule through force in most cases. But realistically, some form of democracy is inevitable for most of the world in response to the democratization of information.