Thursday, December 28, 2006

Iraq: It's Not One War, But Several Iraq: It's Not One War, But Several

StrategyPage: Iraq: It's Not One War, But Several points out what the MSM keeps missing. There are really two (or more) wars going on right now in Iraq. The Sunni Arabs are being pushed out, in response to their domination of the other ethnic groups there, esp. under Saddam Hussein, and, in particular, because of their use of ever increasing levels of violence against innocents in order to try to reimpose their control. Notably, their numbers have dropped by approximately 1/4 since we intervened, and are expected to drop by another 1/4 by the end of 2007, resulting in approximately 1/10 of the population of Iraq (down from 1/5).

The other war is being waged by Iran through surrogates for control of the Shiite portion of the population. But where the two wars intersect is that part of the battle between Shiite groups is being fought out through their success in pushing the Sunni Arabs out.

The other player is Saudi Arabia, which is the home of Wahhabi Sunni Islam, and has a natural allegience towards their fellow Sunni Arabs in Iraq. They have been threatening to intervene in Iraq to protect them, and this has been a worry of mine, as a direct military intervention would almost invariably result in a similar military intervention by Iran. But the article points out that this is unlikely, due to our defending Saudi Arabia. Rather, they will most likely continue to unofficially supply money, guns, and jihadists. Realistically though, this can only slow down the inevitable, with the Iraqi military gaining experience and focussing on the Sunni Arab Jihadists.

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