One big point is that the insurgency ratio can be changed much more rapidly and markedly by swapping insurgents to our side than by surging troops.
But there are a lot risks remaining, as the article points out.
Just my musings. Politically, a little right of center. By profession, I am a patent attorney, specializing in software and electronics (www.softpats.com). I can be reached at bhayden at softpats.com, ieee.org, or highdown.com.