Declassified NIE Key Judgments Declassified NIE Key Judgments

The Declassified NIE Key Judgments.pdf (application/pdf Object) is out, and not surprisingly, the NYT article that leaked this NIE was misleading. The short summary is that we have hurt al Qaeda a lot, but that the global jihadist is likely to grow in the future. It also hits hard that democracy may be the answer.

If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit